The Gilbert report commissioned by the Board and Administration includes an enrollment study illustrating a general trend of decreasing enrollment in the AGSD for a number of years. They project that this decline will continue but can be reversed if students attending Avon Grove Charter School choose to attend the AGSD instead.
Ten years ago, in the school year 2007/8, there were 5,445 students in the
Avon Grove school district. In 2016/17 there were 5,010 students, a decline of
435 students, or 8%.
With the implementation of full day kindergarten, the assumption is that many
new students will come to the new program versus the Charter School. Gilbert only
assumed enrollment would increase by reducing AGCS enrollment and never
acknowledged the likelihood that new enrollment would occur as parents chose
a free program over private programs ($5000-$7000 annually). The majority of students
at this age end up in the main school system in later grades anyway. The data to the right
suggests the implementation of FDK will have a significant impact into later grades.
It would be more reasonable to assume that FDK has not brought new students into the
system but rather that students who were likely to end up in Avon Grove in first grade or
soon after are attracted to the school system a year earlier. An increase did occur with the implementation of FDK since enrollment for 2017/18 is at 5,057 students or 47 students more than the same time last year. It seems that some are students that would have otherwise attended the charter school and the remainder would have likely been in some private or paid program. There is no clear basis to extrapolate this bump much beyond kindergarten.
The board contracted Gilbert Architects and Future Think, Inc. to study the school facilities and expected future enrollments. The results of those studies were reported to the board on March 4, 2015. This 203-page report is very thorough, and very professionally done. It includes a detailed assessment of all the school's buildings, a projection of student enrollment for the next 10 years. The findings of the report were summarized and presented to the Board in this presentation.
The graphics below are from the Gilbert report.